Melbourne, Florida 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

921
FXUS62 KMLB 250520
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
120 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

- Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will produce sensitive fire
  weather conditions through Sunday.

- A High risk for dangerous rip currents will exist at area
  beaches through Friday.

- Turning hotter this weekend with a Moderate HeatRisk on Sunday
  before slightly cooler air is forecast early next week with
  relatively low rain chances with the best chance for rain on
  Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 852 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

No significant updates required to this evening`s forecast update.
High pressure remains anchored off the Mid-Atlantic, funneling
onshore easterly winds to the Florida peninsula.

Area soundings continue to reveal a strong mid-level inversion,
which continues to stifle rainfall opportunities.

Low temps should run close to last night, warmest at the coast.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Currently-Friday... Local radar imagery shows dry weather over
east central Florida. GOES-16 satellite imagery shows scattered
to broken marine stratocumulus clouds over the east central
Florida Atlantic waters with partly to mostly sunny skies over
land. High pressure (~1023mb) is situated over the western
Atlantic with the mid/upper level ridge axis over the southwest
Atlantic and the state of Florida. Temperatures are currently in
the upper 70s to mid 80s near the coast and in the low to upper
80s inland to the west of I-95. Dew points are in the 60s and PWAT
values are around 0.80-0.90." Winds are from the east at 10-15mph
with gusts to 20-25mph. Dry weather is expected tonight except
isolated showers (PoPs ~20%) are forecast over the Treasure Coast
and southern Brevard waters into the overnight hours. Winds are
expected weaken overnight with east winds around 4-10mph. Low
temperatures in the low to upper 60s are forecast inland to the
west of I-95 with the mid 60s to low 70s forecast along the coast.

Winds are expected to increase into Friday afternoon and early
evening from the east at 10-15mph with gusts to 20-25mph with the
east coast sea breeze. Afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s are
forecast near the coast and the mid 80s to low 90s are forecast
inland to the west of I-95 under partly to mostly sunny skies.

The Weekend... High pressure over the state of Florida and the
southwest Atlantic is expected to weaken and shift south into
Sunday before a "cool" front moves east-southeast over east
central Florida late Sunday into early Monday. Isolated showers
(20%) are forecast mainly to the north of St. Cloud to Patrick Air
Force Base Sunday afternoon and evening with onshore flow in
place and as the east coast sea breeze converges with the west
coast sea breeze over the western interior of central Florida.
Seasonable to above normal temperatures are expected to continue.
Afternoon highs in the mid 80s low 90s are forecast on Saturday
and the mid 80s to mid 90s are forecast on Sunday. A Moderate
HeatRisk exists on Sunday over the interior of east central
Florida. This level of heat can affect anyone sensitive to heat,
especially without adequate hydration or effective cooling. Low
temperatures in the upper 50s to low 70s are forecast.

Monday-Wednesday... Moisture increases (PWATs ~1.30-1.70") over
east central Florida on Monday as the aforementioned cold front
moves east-southeast over Florida and which is expected to be over
south Florida by mid to late Monday morning. High pressure
(~1024mb) is expected to quickly build to the north of Florida
over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic which will re-
establish onshore flow early to mid week. Isolated to scattered
showers (PoPs ~ 20-50%) and isolated lightning storms are
forecast to develop near the coast by the late morning and early
afternoon before showers are forecast to move onshore and farther
inland into the afternoon and evening hours. Isolated showers are
forecast to develop into Tuesday afternoon with onshore flow in
place and PWATs in the 1.20-1.60" range. Dry weather is forecast
on Wednesday with PWATs reducing to 0.80-1.00". Seasonable to
above normal temperatures are expected with afternoon highs in the
low 80s to low 90s and lows in the 60s to low 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Currently-Friday... Favorable boating conditions are expected with
high pressure (~1023mb) over the southwest Atlantic and the state
of Florida. Isolated onshore moving showers (PoPs ~20%) are
forecast tonight into early Friday morning over the Brevard to
Treasure Coast waters. East winds at around 10-15kts with seas to
2-4ft are expected.

Saturday-Monday... Favorable boating conditions are expected
through Monday. High pressure is expected to weaken and shift
south on Sunday before a "cool" front is forecast to move east-
southeast over the east central Florida Atlantic waters Sunday
night into Monday morning. Isolated to scattered (PoPs ~20-40%)
generally west to southwest moving showers and isolated lightning
storms are forecast Sunday night and on Monday. East-southeast
winds at 8-12kts are forecast to increase from the east on Monday
at 10-15kts. Seas to 2-4ft are expected with up to 5ft forecast
offshore (20-60nm) Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 120 AM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Onshore winds 5 to 10 knots pick up late this morning to 10 to 15
knots, becoming gusty along the coastal terminals in the
afternoon. Winds become a bit more southeasterly late tonight as
winds diminish to around 5 to 10 knots. Rain continues to evade
the area. VFR VIS and CIGs anticipated through the period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 300 PM EDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Warm and dry conditions are forecast through Saturday. Min RH
values will reach 35-45 percent across the interior each
afternoon. Min RH values are forecast between 45-55 percent near
the coast. East winds today and Friday will be enhanced by the
sea breeze with speeds 10-20 mph each afternoon, gusting up to 30
mph at times especially along the coast. Above normal temperatures
continue across the interior with highs in the upper 80s to lower
90s. Such warm, dry, and breezy/gusty conditions will produce
fire weather sensitive conditions supporting rapid drying of fuels
and spread of any new or ongoing fires. Very Good smoke
dispersion is forecast both today and Friday with Poor to
Generally Good dispersion on Sunday. Scattered showers (20-50%) and
isolated lightning storms are forecast on Monday. Burn bans are
in effect for Lake, Seminole, Orange, Volusia, and Brevard
counties.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  82  64  85  64 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  87  65  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  82  68  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  82  66  84  64 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  89  65  90  66 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  87  64  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  87  66  91  67 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  82  66  84  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Tollefsen